Dependency Capture

Definition: When a system becomes unable to function without a provider, platform, leader, or supply chain—dependency becomes leverage.

Why it matters: Dependency concentrates power quietly, without a coup.

Quick Diagnostic

• “We can’t switch” is accepted.
• Exit plans are theoretical.
• Critical workflows rely on one point.
  Cost of delay: governance becomes negotiation with the dependency.

Problem

Convenience hardens into lock-in. Over time, switching costs and operational reliance turn optionality into fragility and leverage.

Mechanism

Adoption → integration → workflow lock-in → switching costs → bargaining power shifts → governance constrained

Early Indicators

• Single vendor becomes default infrastructure.
• Data portability is absent or untested.
• Contract terms drift toward provider control.
• Internal capabilities atrophy (“we don’t need that now”).
• Critical paths lack redundancy.

Examples

• Civilizational: critical infrastructure dependent on narrow supply chains.
• Institutional: policy constrained by platform reliance.
• Organizational: vendor lock-in becomes strategic paralysis.

Control Opportunity

Design

• Exit plans as first-class requirements.
• Interoperability + portability standards.
• Redundancy and multi-provider architectures.
• Periodic “switch drills” (prove exit).
• Contractual safeguards (data rights, audit rights, continuity).

Measurement

• Switching cost index.
• % critical workflows on single provider.
• “Exit readiness score” from drills.
• Vendor concentration risk.

Failure mode if missing
You don’t govern the system—you negotiate with your dependency.

Core Question

What breaks if this disappears tomorrow?

Maps to Patterns

Dependency Trap • Gatekeeper Capture • Authority Without Friction • Crisis as Audit

Related Problems

Complexity Overload • Ownership Diffusion • Platform Authority Substitution

Routing

Hub • Drift • Controls (Social) • Daily Brief • Field Notes